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Authoritative Guide to Global Warming

Channel 4 broadcast The Great Global Warming Swindle, a 90-minute documentary that sought to undermine the notions that global warming is a major problem and that it is caused by human activity. Like all carefully crafted propaganda, it seemed to provide a compelling case, but those who actually understood the science of climate change immediately accused the programme of containing numerous distortions and inaccuracies.

Similarly, Al Gore’s Oscar-winning An Inconvenient Truth has come in for criticisms. Back in October, a High Court judge said that it contained nine scientific errors.

With claims of apocalypse and counterclaims of climate porn, it is not surprising that the public often feels baffled about global warming. Thankfully, The Hot Topic goes a long way to clearing up the confusion. The authors, David King and Gabrielle Walker, bring clarity, insight and authority to the subject.

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King was chief scientific adviser to the Government until a few weeks ago, and has been involved in most of the high-level global warming discussions in recent years. Walker is a science journalist with a reputation for accurate and lucid writing (she taught me a huge amount when she edited my first article for New Scientist 10 years ago).

Hot Topic begins by tackling the two fundamental questions – is the Earth warming up and, if so, is it caused by human activity? The answers, in short, are yes and yes.

There are still lots of uncertainties, with plenty more research to be done, but the authors explain how serious man-made global warming due to the burning of fossil fuels has been established beyond all reasonable doubt after three decades of research.

The myths promoted by global warming sceptics are also addressed, because each seems so compelling to the non-expert. For example, some sceptics say that the Earth is not really warming and that the ice is not really melting, because there are parts of Antarctica that are actually increasing in thickness.

Parts of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet are indeed thickening, because a warming atmosphere absorbs more moisture, which then deposits snow as it passes over the coldest parts of Antarctica; but this is only a minor effect compared with the melting of ice in other parts of Antarctica, Greenland and the Arctic.

At this point, King and Walker do not mince their words. Having stated the evidence that proves the case for man-made global warming, they write: “If anybody tells you differently they either have a vested interest in ignoring the scientific arguments or they are fools.”

Crucially, this book is not authored by eco-warriors, but by pragmatists, who care about understanding the science, examining the problems, and looking for technological and political solutions.

The bad news is that global warming will be devastating if we carry on oblivious to climate change – the hot summer of 2003 effectively killed at least 35,000 Europeans, and there is worse to come. The good news is that the truly catastrophic effects can be largely avoided, because technologies exist to cut back our carbon emissions.

King and Walker seem to advocate a mixed portfolio of approaches, including nuclear, wind, wave and biofuels. In fact, the only technological fixes that seem out of bounds are those designed directly to cool the Earth, rather than to reduce carbon levels.

Some engineers have proposed putting mirrors in space to reflect the sunlight or creating clouds of sulphur dioxide to block it. Such technologies are largely untested, and they only encourage us to continue with our bad habits. As the chemist Meinrat Andrae put it, “It’s like a junkie figuring out new ways of stealing from his children.”

Also, it is hard to predict the negative consequences of space mirrors or sulphur dioxide clouds – King and Walker are quick to remind us of the children’s song “I know an old lady who swallowed a fly…”

Instead of reflecting solar energy the most obvious solution is to capture it and use it to generate electricity. The most extraordinary fact in the book is that we receive from the Sun 10,000 times more energy than we need. If just one per cent of the world’s desert could be turned into solar panels, this would power the entire planet.

However, solar energy will never be the complete solution, particularly for those of us living in Britain. King and Walker merely set out the options; it is up to us and our political leaders to decide on the way forward. The one thing that is non-negotiable is that solutions need to be found.

In other words, when it comes to the question of who you should believe, Al Gore’s rhetoric is much closer to the truth than Channel 4’s fairy tales.


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